klimanews

Ein Umweltphysiker im Klimawandel

Kälte: Carters erste Prüfung

DER SPIEGEL 07/1977 vom 07.02.1977, Seite 78

Schon 1974 hatte die CIA die Regierung darauf aufmerksam gemacht, daß ein Klima-Umschlag stattfinde, der “bereits zu großen Wirtschaftsproblemen auf der ganzen Welt geführt hat”.

So glaubt der amerikanische Klimatologe Reid Bryson von der University of Wisconsin, auf dessen Studien sich die CIA stützte, daß sich auf der gesamten nördlichen Halbkugel das Klima immer mehr abkühle. In ihrem Report warnten die Geheimdienstier vor durch Wetterumschwünge hervorgerufene Energie- und Nahrungsmittelkrisen, die ihrerseis zu politischen Krisen führen könnten.

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Angesichts der “Getreidekrise” im Jahre 1972 herrschte nach etlichen wetterbedingten Missernten in den sechziger Jahren eine kollektive Angstsituation. Die Nachrichten und Schlagzeilen in den Medien häuften sich und es kam zu einer Nachrichtendichte, die den amerikanischen Geheimdienst CIA veranlasste, den vielen wilden Spekulationen nach den Ursachen dieser Wetterkapriolen nachzugehen und die führenden Klimatologen um Auskunft und Rat zu ersuchen.

Es waren führende Denker der CIA, die Anfang der siebziger Jahre zu dem Ergebnis kamen, daß die Veränderungen des Klimas “vielleicht die größte Herausforderung (seien), der sich Amerika in den kommenden Jahres ausgesetzt sehen wird”. Aus der Angst heraus, dass die USA ihre Vormachtstellung als Getreideexporteur durch Missernten verlieren könnten, gab der CIA mehrere Studien über das Klima der Welt, die wahrscheinlich zu erwartenden Veränderungen und deren vermutliche Auswirkungen auf Amerika und die übrige Welt in Auftrag. Was die Methoden der Klimatologie betraf, so gab es 3 Schulen und Lehren, die Lamb-Schule in England, die Smagorinsky-Schule in den USA und die Budyko-Schule in der Sowjet-Union. Die Studien erklärten, die Welt trete in eine schwierige Periode ein, in der es zu einer erheblichen Klimaveränderung kommen werde, wobei die Minderheit für eine Erwärmung, die Mehrheit aber für eine drastische und dramatische Abkühlung plädierte.

Politischer Sieger unter den diversen Studien war die Wiskonsin-Studie, die unter der Leitung von Professor Reid Bryson entstand. Sie sagte vorher, “dass die Erde zu dem Klimasystem zurückkehrt, das von Beginn des 17. Jahrhunderts bis zur Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts geherrscht hat und üblicherweise die neoborale oder “Kleine Eiszeit” genannt wird.” In dieser Zeit lebte Nordeuropa überwiegend in der Dämmerung ständigen Winters. Schlechte Ernährung hatte große Epidemien in Europa, Russland, Indien und Afrika zur Folge, während die Iberische Halbinsel, Italien und Griechenland blühten. Professor Brysons Gedankengang lautet so: “Bis etwa 1940 wurde die Welt wärmer; Mitte der vierziger Jahre setzte dann eine entgegen gesetzte Entwicklung ein, da sich die Polarluft nach Süden ausdehnte und sich die nördliche Halbkugel abkühlte. Prof. Bryson glaubte, dass die 3 Hauptfaktoren dabei sind: vulkanische Asche, vom Menschen erzeugter Staub und Kohlendioxyd.”

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The Deterioration of the World’s Weather

The Washington Post, Oct 11, 1976, Jonathan Power

LONDON-Two years ago the CIA wrote a classified report, “A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”: Its opening paragraph reads like the curtain-raiser for the Club of Rome in its most melancholic moment:

“The Western World’s leading climatologists have confirmed recent reports of a detrimental global climatic change. The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food, but this stability will not be possible under the new climatic era.”

“Leaders in climatology and economics are in agreement that a climate change is taking place and that it has already caused major economic problems throughout the world. As it becomes more apparent to the nations around the world that the current trend is indeed a long term reality, new alignments will be made among nations to insure a secure supply of food resources. Assessing the impact of climate change on major nations will, in the future, occupy a major portion of the intelligence community’s assets.”

A Study by the University of Wisconsin, projects that fhe earths climate is returning to that of the Neo-Boreal era (1600-1850) (“Little Ice Age”), an era of drought, famine and political unrest in the Western World.

The backbone of the report was based on the research of the distinguished University of Wisconsin climatologist, Reid Bryson. But in private conversation recently Bryson criticized the reports “imprecision” and, indeed, the report is appallingly badly written and for all that, its core argument the deterioration of the weather of the Northern Hemisphere is the majority view among climatologists and must be taken with a great deal of seriousness. And drought in Europe and North America this summer has brought home to the man in the street that this is an issue he can no longer ignore. What exactly is going on? From the 1890s to the mid-1940s the global air temperature increased by about 0.5 degrees Centigrade. But since the mid-1940s the temperature has fallen by around 0.3 degrees. The earth has cooled, and the probability is that it is cooling. The effects of this cooling are quite dramatic. The worlds snow and ice cover has increased by at least 10 to 15 per cent; the monsoon in Asia has become more irregular; the Sahel has suffered the longest drought in living memory; and in Western Europe this summer a number of countries have experienced the worst drought for hundreds of years. Climatologists differ about the causes of this cooling trend, but all agree that it has triggered a major change in the pattern of atmospheric circulation. The lower edge of the circumpolar vortex (the great cap of high altitude winds revolving about the North Pole) has in recent years stayed further south than usual during the summer. One effect of this is to slow the weather systems moving eastward over Europe, enabling persistent an to become established. With the depressions being pushed southward, rainfall over the Mediterranean and Middle East has increased. Most serious of all, the tropical circulation belt has been squeezed toward the equator so the monsoon rains do not extend so far to the north. These changes have not proceeded uniformly, rather in fits and starts. So the two good years of monsoon in India should be interpreted as a lucky break in a deteriorating situation. Mrs. Gandhi is unlikely to find the gods on her side in the next five years. None of us, however, should be surprised that the weather is changing… , as those of A.D. 1200, although the magnitude of the deterioration is not yet as great. Since, however, similar coolings in the past millenium have never lasted for less than 40 years, it seems at the very least the present trend may return us to a situation more typical (i.e., poorer weather) of the past few hundred years than the past few decades. The question of the future is the most taxing and controversial one. After all, if the weather is going to deteriorate it will upset as the CIA report, the whole political balance of the world. Large countries, like India and China, will face conditions. They will become more and more dependent on importa from the North American, which itself will have increasing difficulty in satisfying its own domestic needs. However, the CIA report does oversimplify… The consensus of climatological opinion believes that between now and near the end of the century the cooling trend will continue to that extent the CIA report is right. But the consensus also that come the end of the century, mans industrial activities, which tend to warm the atmosphere, will begin to counteract the cooling. In fact, there is a school of thought that sees many of the great cities of the world becoming submerged as the ice caps melt and the seas rise. The in the pack is Reid Bryson, who is regarded by the profession as one of the top three in the business. His latest research leads him to disagree with the consensus and he believes that the chances of the cooling trends accelerating are high…

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Donnerstag, 5 November, 2009 um 12:29

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